According to The Lancet, “The projected changes are dominated by global warming (accounting for more than 90 percent of the risk to human beings), mainly through a rise in the frequency of heatwaves (about 2,700 heat-related fatalities per year during the reference period vs 151,500 during the period 2071-100).” 

Those numbers are quite staggering. The implications of the findings are profound for the rest of the world, particularly low and middle income countries which do not have access to the kind of resources which Europe has for adaptation to climate change and reducing the risk posed by extreme weather events. 

Many low-income countries are still struggling to put in place the most rudimentary of climate risk early warning systems that is now the objective of a global initiative backed by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), the World Bank and the UN Office for Disaster Risk Reduction (UNISDR) in an effort to meet a key target of the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction adopted two years by UN Member States. 

The Lancet findings underline the size of the challenge facing many countries in regions of the world where weather-related extreme events pose an even greater threat than in Europe. The Sendai Framework sets targets for substantial reductions in disaster mortality, the numbers of disaster affected people, economic losses and damage to critical infrastructure by 2030. 

This research throws into stark relief how difficult it will be to reduce disaster losses and alleviate the impact on human health if there is not a major ramping up of mitigation, climate adaptation and risk reduction efforts in the immediate future. 

As the authors point out the results are particularly relevant to a key priority for action in the Sendai Framework, “Understanding disaster risk.” 

A key element of developing this understanding at national and local level is the promotion of the collection, analysis, management and use of relevant data and to ensure its dissemination so that it can be acted on. 

As we move towards the Sendai Framework’s 2020 deadline for a substantial increase in the number of countries with national and local disaster risk reduction strategies, we need to have a much more developed understanding of what the implications are for disaster risk management of climate change and population growth. 

These latest research findings are a welcome addition to our understanding of disaster risk in Europe but should also encourage similar investigations of the consequences of climate change in other parts of the world likely to suffer the worsening impacts of weather-related disasters in the future. 

Robert Glasser is the UN Secretary-General’s Special Representative for Disaster Risk Reduction

Date:

9 Aug 2017

Sources:

United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction (UNISDR)

Themes:

Climate Change, Governance

Regions:

Europe