Mr. Rogelio Mondragón, INEGI, Mexico, said: “When the earthquake struck this year we used satellite and drone information to show damaged, collapsed, and standing buildings. We also used radar images to show the vertical movement of buildings. Geospatial information also generates indicators.”

Ms. Molly Jahn, University of Wisconsin-Madison said: “We now take an El Niño year and add an agricultural event. This approach to assess food system stability has led to an outlook scenario which is used to explore the future. The past is no longer an adequate guide. We are forecasting regional security by building a demand for a more robust approach to risk that will produce crucial stress test scenarios for hazards in the future. We are modelling systems that learn and generate decision-relevant science.”

Mr. Robert Muir-Wood, Risk Management Solutions, said: “Private sector catastrophe risk modelling is now a US$500 million per annum venture. Multi-hazards are incorporated in such models and licensed to insurers and reinsurers for them to imprint their own risks. These catastrophe models provide a large virtual history for insurers and reinsurers to prepare for risk worldwide.”

He said this type of risk modelling was necessary for disaster risk management, but “we must return every two to three years to see if there has been progress.

The opening discussion was moderated by Mr. Youba Sokona of the South Centre.

Date:

20 Nov 2017

Sources:

United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction (UNISDR)

Themes:

Risk Identification & Assessment

Regions:

Africa, Americas, Europe, Asia